[SMM Analysis] Overview of Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicle Situation in H1 2025

I. Production and Sales Data

According to public data released by authoritative institutions such as the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), the production and sales of fuel cell vehicles in China from January to May 2025 are as follows:

(I) Overview of Core Data:

                                                                 Unit: 10,000 units

Note: The data statistics cover fuel cell commercial vehicles (including buses and trucks), excluding passenger vehicles and stationary power generation applications.

(II) Monthly Trend Analysis:

1. January-February: 

Affected by the Chinese New Year holiday and the policy transition period, the production and sales pace was relatively slow (with approximately 219 units produced and 252 units sold).

2. March: 

The implementation of local subsidy policies drove demand, with monthly production reaching 365 units and sales reaching 377 units, marking the peak for the quarter.

3. April-May: 

Stable growth was maintained, with monthly production of approximately 592 units and sales of 493 units. The expansion of infrastructure contributed to an increase in market penetration.

II. Key Driving Factors:

Policy Support:From January to May 2025, the national and provincial/municipal governments jointly issued 116 hydrogen energy-related policies.

Expansion of Application Scenarios:Heavy-duty trucks and logistics vehicles accounted for a significant proportion, with demonstration projects in ports, ore areas, etc., being delivered in batches. Among them, Hydrogen Blue Times delivered 100 hydrogen-powered heavy-duty trucks to Handan, Hebei Province.

Cost Reduction:The average price of fuel cell systems has dropped to approximately 1,000 yuan/kW (a 47% decrease YoY), driving an improvement in the economic efficiency of the entire vehicle.

III. Regional and Corporate Dynamics:

Regional Concentration: 

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Guangdong clusters accounted for 78% of the national sales.

Performance of Top-Tier Enterprises: 

Antelope Hydrogen Energy: Delivered and operated 100 hydrogen-powered container trucks for Jiaxing Port Authority; 

Farizon New Energy Commercial Vehicle: Successively delivered 1,000 Farizon Star Intelligence H9M units to Shanghai Shangqiao; 

Proton Motor: Signed an export intention agreement with an Australian partner for 20 hydrogen fuel cell heavy-duty trucks.

IV. Challenges and Outlook:

Existing Bottlenecks: 

The coverage rate of hydrogen refueling stations is still insufficient, particularly in second- and third-tier cities, which lack supporting hydrogen refueling stations.

H2 Outlook:

Policy: As the final year of the "14th Five-Year Plan" fuel cell subsidy policy, the uncertainty surrounding the continuity of policies in 2025 will, to some extent, affect corporate production plans. Some enterprises have adopted conservative strategies due to unclear expectations for new policies, with some automakers suspending or reducing their production plans. Taking Beijing as an example, the hydrogen vehicle purchase subsidy in 2025 has decreased by 50% compared to 2021, and the subsidy disbursement cycle has been extended to 18 months, exacerbating the cash flow pressure on vehicle manufacturers and significantly reducing their purchase willingness. Additionally, the demonstration city cluster policy is set to expire in September 2025, while new policies remain unclear, plunging the industry into a "policy vacuum," with enterprises generally postponing their expansion plans.

Short-term Drivers: Policy Sprint and Peak Season Effect

1. Subsidy Sprint: 2025 marks the final year of the demonstration city cluster policy, with local governments needing to complete their targets by August (Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei) or December (Zhengzhou, Hebei). It is expected that orders will be concentrated in Q3-Q4.

2. Expansion of Highway Access Policies: Ten provinces nationwide (including Shandong and Shaanxi) have introduced policies for free highway access for hydrogen-powered vehicles. The relaxation of highway access will stimulate demand for logistics and heavy-duty trucks.

3. Seasonal Installation Peak: Historical data shows that June and Q4 are the peaks for production and sales, with a rebound expected after the trough in May.

The following figure illustrates the completion status of pilot projects in various target cities.

(The above information is sourced from public data and survey data compiled by relevant departments.)

V. Conclusion: Short-term Pressure, Expected Bottoming Out and Rebound in H2

1. The decline in May reflects a combination of economic bottlenecks, a policy vacuum, and seasonal fluctuations, rather than a reversal of long-term trends.

2. Core variables in H2: The intensity of the subsidy sprint in city clusters, the progress of hydrogen refueling station commissioning, and the speed of green hydrogen cost reduction.

3. Key periods: If sales do not rebound in June, the probability of a conservative annual forecast (7,000 units) will increase. If policy coordination is strengthened, an optimistic target (15,000 units) remains achievable.